Tropical Impacts Expected in SC Next Week

Tropical Depression Four is centered near western Cuba this morning. It is expected to move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico today and likely become Tropical Storm Debby later today or tonight. The latest track from the National Hurricane Center has the center of Debby making landfall Monday in the Big Bend area of Florida, then tracking to near the Georgia and South Carolina coast. By Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, the steering winds guiding the path of Debby will become quite weak. That means there is a good bit of uncertainty on exactly where Debby will move, and the storm will be moving very slowly. Notice the wide cone of where the center could be by early and mid week.

The latest computer models are largely having the idea of at some point turning a slow moving storm center along or near the coast toward land and moving slowly inland into Georgia or the Carolinas next week.

This track idea is very concerning, because the result would be prolonged very heavy rain and flooding. Winds and storm surge would still be an issue, but flooding rains would likley be the biggest impact. If this scenario happened, rain amounts in the worst affected areas would probably be 15 to 20 inches or higher. The GFS is currently is showing this idea. This far out, do not take the details of where the highest amounts are as the main message. Instead, take away the message that a scenario like this is possible anywhere along the Georgia and Carolina coast, and that if the center does indeed drift from coast well inland, heavy rains and flooding would move well inland too.

The forecast will shift and change over the coming days, especially with a slow moving storm and weak steering patterns. The most important thing at this point is to stay aware of the latest information and to make sure you have an emergency plan if it is needed.