Storm Developing Just Offshore Brings Rain and Wind, Could Become a Tropical System

An area of low pressure is getting better organized this afternoon just offshore of the Carolinas. The system should move toward land and bring the Pee Dee and Grand Strand rain and gusty winds later tonight and tomorrow, and likely into tomorrow night. Satellite pictures this afternoon show a a cluster of showers and thunderstorms intensifiying near the center of the low pressure, and this could lead to the storm becoming subtropical or tropical in nature. If if were to become a named tropical storm, the name would be Helena. Right now the National Hurricane Center has that as a 50% chance of happening, but the current trend on the sattelite loop could be increasing that probability.

Regardless of whether it becomes a named storm, it will be bringing us rain and gusty winds. Exactly how much depends on the track the storm system takes. Computer models are still very spread out on what the track will look like.

The GFS and some of the other American models point to a track into South Carolina, with the center moving over or just south of the Pee Dee. That track would bring the heaviest rain and the highest wind gusts. The European is farther to the east on the storm track, moving the center into North Carolina. That would mean slightly lower rain amounts and also lower wind gusts.

RIght now, I would expect occasional showers tonight, then frequent showers and thunderstorms tomorrow into tomorrow night, including some heavy downpours. A flash flood watch has been issued for Dillon and Marion counties in the Pee Dee area. Most likley rain amounts 3 to 5 inches. Given the set up of high pressure to our north and the storm system approaching from the south, the pressure difference between the two will give us wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph. If the storm tracks just to our south of right over us like some models suggest, we'd have to watch for the possibility of higher wind gusts.

I'll be watching this closely and will update again this evening.