Southeast United States Threatened with Hurricane Later this Week; Thursday and Friday Main Focus on Timing

A tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea is expected to move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days and likely strengthen into a hurricane. If it does, it will be named Helene. The National Hurricane Center has started advisories now for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. The most likely paths would bring the hurricane to a landfall on the northern Gulf coast, probably in the area of the Florida panhandle or NW Florida. The details of the track will likely shift around a bit over the next few days, so everyone in the Southeast will have to keep close attention to the latest information going forward.

Here is the official forecast track with the first advisory as of 11 am on PTC 9 from the NHC:

The intensity forecasts for this system mostly point to rapid strengthening, and the official forecast from the NHC has maximum sustained winds up to 110 mph by Thursday morning.

Some models are stronger than this, and some weaker, but the possibility of a major hurricane making landfall on the Gulf Coast of Florida is certainly there for later this week.

The most severe impacts with this scenerio would be for Florida and south Georgia, but Alabama and the Carolinas would also be in line for rain and wind concerns. There also will be a tornado threat mainly north and east of where the center ends up going. Since there is not even an organized center to this system yet, it is too early to get into specifics. The big message now for the Southeast is to be sure you have a plan for hurricane and tropical storm impacts later this week.