Hot and Humid into the Weekend; Latest on the Tropics

It is another hot and humid day across the Pee Dee! The NWS has a heat advisory out for this afternoon and early evening, and almost surely will issue one again for tomorrow. They could even knock it up a level and issue an excessive heat warning tomorrow for heat indices of 110. Partly to mostly sunny this afternoon. Slim chance of a thunderstorm late today or this evening. Highs for Dillon, Marion and Marlboro counties 93 to 97. Heat index reaching about 105. Becoming clear later tonight. Muggy. Lows 73 to 77. Partly sunny, hot and even a tad more humid tomorrow. Highs again 93 to 97. Heat index 105 to 110. The chance for scattered thu;nderstorms will be a little higher tomorrow and Saturday, and the Storm Prediction Center has us in the "marginal" risk area for a severe thunderstorm both days. No big changes Sunday, then probably not quite as hot early next week. Early next week's forecast partly depends on what happens in the tropics.

In the tropics, the disturbance we've been watching is a bit more impressive today with showers and thunderstorms over the northern Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean. Here is a satellite loop showing that:

The potential forecast track for this system has shifted westward, and now is more centered on moving into the western Gulf of Mexico, rather than off the SE US coast, although it is still early in the game and no definite track ideas can be made just yet. The National Hurricane Center is giving the system a 60% chance of becoming a depression or Tropical Storm. The next name on the list for Tropical Storms is Debby. Here is their latest outlook:

The European EPS ensemble model we talked about yesterday has made a shift westward also. This is the map for Sunday night for the "mean" postion and all of the individual members. Remember the ensemble model runs the same model multiple times with slightly different assumptions each time.

Several other models have the same general idea, but since a center to this system hasn't even formed yet, there is still plenty of uncertainty. I'll keep you posted of changes as we go.